Two Predictions for Singapore GE 2016

Hi there! Still suffering from post-GE result? Or just simply lack of sleep due to the late night awake watching TV for the result (like Yours Truly. Hur hur.)

Well, I've listed down the % of votes won by PAP for the last 6 General Elections from 1988 onwards. Also mentioned the nos of seats won vs total nos of the seats.

1988: 63.2% (80 seats won out of 81)
1991: 61.0% (77 seats won out of 81)
1997: 65.0% (81 seats won out of 83)
2001: 75.3% (82 seats won out of 84)
2006: 66.6% (82 seats won out of 84)
2011: 60.14% (81 seats won out of 87)

[Let's sidetrack a bit on GE 1991, partially quoted from this site, Singapore Parliamentary General Election 1991:


This was Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong's maiden leading of PAP into an election after Lee Kuan Yew stepped down as PM and PAP's secretary-general in 1990.

PM Goh decided to call a snap election merely three years after the last GE, setting Parliament's shortest term ever, to court a fresh mandate. However, it lost an unprecedented four seats, the biggest number since the 1963 GE, and its share of votes fell for the third consecutive time.

SDP added two more spoils to the seat retained successfully by leader Chiam See Tong, becoming the main opposition party in Parliament. Eight out of nine SDP candidates came in among the top ten opposition candidates.

WP made its second in-road into the legislature with the victory of its organising secretary Low Thia Khiang, who would years later become WP secretary-general and leader.

At a press conference, PM Goh glumly attributed the loss to his "open and consultative style of government" and pledged to re-evaluate his style. GRCs were increased from three to four seats each.

Since the introduction of the Non-Constituency Member of Parliament scheme in 1984, this was the first GE with no NCMP seats offered as the four opposition seats exceeded the minimum of three NCMP seats alloted.


End of sidetrack. Heh.]

What can we infer from the past GE results & how can we use it to predict for the future outcome?

Yes, I am asking those questions myself.

Methodology:
I'm giving colors on the reverse of the trend. If the result (in term of %) is higher than that of the previous year, the figure will be marked in blue. If it's lower, the color in red. Capisce?

So we notice it's red for the GE 1991 result (lower support to PAP compared to the previous GE in 1988).

Noteworthy is that the following 2 GE-s after that, it showed a healthy improvement. Stronger result. Yay, a positive trend clearly established! More support to PAP.

In GE 2006 however, the result was again in the red. Lesser support? It's said very well from Singapore Parliamentary General Election 2006:

The PAP government's second handover of power to a third Prime Minister, Lee Hsien Loong, could spell an uphill task for the long-dominant ruling party to maintain its hegemony, if going by GE1991 where his predecessor, now Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong, had assumed leadership and PAP lost four seats.


Do take note, however, that PAP managed to still secure a similar no of seats (82) compared to the previous GE in 2001.

Honestly I did imagine the change of leadership will somewhat affect the result in GE 2006.

But I expected that this year GE it will mirror to that of 1997 when the % of voters supporting PAP was again strengthened.

Oh, but it is not! Yes. I was genuinely surprised that the result of this year GE shows a further decline of %.

So here's what my crystal ball telling me for GE 2016:
Option 1: The continuance of the negative trend of % decline suffered by PAP.
Or
Option 2: The sharp reverse of this negative trend (MORE support to PAP)

Option 1 may happen if PAP politicians wrongly--and sadly--think like Alice in Wonderland. I'm referring to her question to Chesire Cat:
"Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?"
"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to."
"I don't much care where –"
"Then it doesn't matter which way you go."


Option 2 will happen if PAP is willing to accept that hey, there is a strong need to improve. More people are growing unhappy. So let's do something about it!

Yeah, this kind of introspection is what any decent politicians will do when they're faced at such a humbling situation.

There's nothing wrong with it. Nothing's wrong to admit one can do better. PM Lee Hsien Loong and his team for his Ang Mo Kio GRC has for sure shown that they could indeed do better (this year GE, his team won AMK GRC with 69.3% of votes compared to the previous GE in 2006 with 66.14% of votes).

Ergo, it can be done! We just need to witness this happen more wide-spread to other GRC-s/SMC-s.

Here's looking forward for General Election 2016...

God bless us, every one!
(Sorry, couldn't resist another quote. This time from Tiny Tim, a character from A Christmas Carol.)

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